A little over three years ago I wrote about possible world conflicts on the horizon including Israel-Iran, US-North Korea and Venezuela and the price of oil. I predicted the barrel of oil above the $100 mark and after war breaking, reaching near $200 a barrel.
I also mentioned that the United States would not consider any military actions against North Korea, who was seeking nuclear weapons at the time. I saw one of two options in this case: Either this would be solved diplomatically or countries (South Korea, Japan) in the region would set off an arms race.
Regarding Venezuela, many people held the idea at that time (when Saddam Hussein Fell) that the United States had too much interest in Venezuela to let Hugo Chavez continue promoting his agenda and would overthrow the democratically elected president. My views at the time were that the United States had little interest in Latin America, which was mistake in my view but its foreign policy.
With the public threats and rhetoric that Iran’s Akmadinajad, I held the firm position that Israel would strike Iran in order to prevent its own demise.
Three years have passed and things have gotten a little more complicated.
Socialism and totalitarianism has continued to spread within Latin America expanding from Venezuela and Brazil to Ecuador, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Argentina.
The United States pursuit of a missile defense system in eastern Europe and the support of previous Soviet Union block nations joining NATO, had gotten Russia all roweled up. Even though Mikhail Gorbachev is revered in the western world for playing a key role in end the cold war, the Russian people did not appreciate their once held great nation, being broken up into parts bringing with it very tough times.
Russia decided to take an active role against what they see as an American threat in their pursuit of re-uniting the USSR by invading Georgia, continuing to sell weapons to Iran and Venezuela and now sending a fleet of warships led by the nuclear powered missile cruiser Peter the Great for military exercises in the western hemisphere. The first of these actions after the end of the cold war.
Additionally Russia has pledged to help Venezuela with nuclear initiatives for “peaceful” purposes.
On another front, North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il had accepted to and began to dismantle their nuclear program but recently decided to back out of the deal made within the 6-party framework. Israel also accused North Korea of covertly supplying weapons to at least six middle eastern nations.
Last but not least Iran’s defiance of the international community and pursuit for nuclear power. Despite increasing U.N. sanctions placed on Iran, Akmadinajad remains resolute on the acquisition of nuclear power for “peaceful” purposes while at the same time announcing a world without Zionism and America.
French Foreign Minister has urged Israel not to launch a military strike against Iran, and to continue to support Western-backed sanctions and dialogue to press Iran to halt its atomic project, while at the same time Moscow refuses to discuss further U.N. sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program.
I believe that the presidential election in the United States plays a factor in the Israeli decision making process on when to attack Iran. It seems apparent that a democratic president would be less supportive of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear installations, than a republican would be and with Senator Barack Obama up in the polls recently largely due to the economic crisis, I believe Israel will launch such a campaign before the end of the year.